Pipeline or Posturing?

Living Oceans worked for a decade to prevent a northern tar sands pipeline and secure legislation to enshrine the northern waters tanker ban in law. The ink is barely dry on that legislation and our new Prime Minister has already agreed to suspend its operation should Alberta Premier Danielle Smith succeed in her bid to have another pipeline built to the northern B.C. coast. 

There are so many caveats to the ‘agreement’ with Alberta that we’re not really sure we need to dust off the old files.  

First, it requires the consent of First Nations whose territories this pipeline would cross. Coastal First Nations have been clear: consent will not be forthcoming. Premier Smith has accordingly set her sights on ‘another route’, presumably to Prince Rupert. She’s offering up to a fifty per cent stake in the pipeline, presumably shared among the dozen or so Nations whose territory would be involved (the actual route isn’t known). Meaning there’s only another fifty per cent left for any investor. 

Second, there’s no agreement to fund the pipeline (thanks very much; one was more than enough). Private investment would have to be found. Enbridge has already said ‘no’.  Kinder Morgan is unlikely to want to go another round with protests and litigation. TC Energy likely feels the same after Energy East. All three companies sank millions of dollars into a process that did not result in them building pipelines. 

Finally, while the ‘agreement’ provides for a streamlined federal approval process, there’s nothing in it for British Columbia but risk and Premier Eby isn’t happy about that.  The provincial environmental approval process could bog down that ambitious 2-year approval goal set by Carney and Smith. 

Factor in the underutilized TransMountain pipeline, the economic uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs, the increasing appreciation in financial markets of the climate risk involved in unbridled fossil fuel development…we’re thinking we can sit this one out. 

This brings us to the question, is Danielle Smith really bidding to have another pipeline built, or betting that the ‘agreement’ will stave off a positive referendum vote on Alberta separation? If this unprecedented, apparent federal-provincial co-operation helps the Premier through an awkward political moment and relieves Prime Minister Carney of the burden of negotiating Alberta out of Confederation, they both win. If some fool steps up to build the pipeline, however, we all lose.