Salmon returns represent hope for the future

We’ve been waiting anxiously to see what effect the removal of salmon farms would have on the returns of wild Pacific salmon. We were particularly interested in the sockeye, once numbering in the tens of millions each year. 

The picture has been pretty grim since the beginning of the century, with returns (blue line) often falling below the abundance of the parent generation (grey line). From 2014 to 2020, returns were lower than brood year abundance and lower than forecast (gold line) in every year, in all four cycles of Fraser sockeye. This continued and deepened the already sharp downward trend that was evident from the late 1990’s, when commercial salmon farming took hold on our coast. 

In 2021, we see returns more than double the brood year abundance. The brood year was itself less than half of its brood year. The 2021 return, while promising, was still 1 million fish or 30 per cent short of the decadal average for this cycle. 

This is the 2025 cycle of salmon, currently estimated to be returning at nearly 10 million fish. That is over two-and-a-half times the decadal average and in fact, the best return on this cycle of sockeye since 1997. 

 
No similar increases were seen in the Adams River or dominant cycle in 2022.  It again failed to meet either forecast or brood year abundance, tempering our expectations for next year’s returns. 

In 2023, however, returns were nearly three times higher than the parent generation. 

In 2024, overall returns were about 100,000 higher than the parent generation.  Looking more deeply into 2024, we can see that certain populations returned at abundances well above the parent generation. Overall, abundances remain low, but the rebuilding potential for these populations is clearly demonstrated. 

So, what does it all mean for the impact of salmon farm removal? It is of course extremely difficult to say, given so little data. Farms in the Discovery Islands were largely empty at the end of 2020; those in the Broughton had been reduced by half by 2021, when the fish returning in 2024 went to sea as juveniles. Certainly, the body condition and lice loads on the juveniles in 2021 were observed by Salmon Coast Field Station to be vastly improved over previous years, with 96% fewer sea lice. The same held true in 2022, when today’s returning fish went to sea. By that time, not only the Discovery Islands but most of the Broughton was clear of salmon farms. 

What can be said without question is that marine survival has improved over what we’ve been seeing for more than two decades. It can also be observed that this has occurred over a period of unusually warm ocean temperatures, exceptionally warm river temperatures, frequently low river flows and despite the interference of a number of landslides creating siltation and physical barriers to migration. This is to say nothing of the ongoing pollution of rivers and lakes critical to spawning success. 

The improvement in returns over this very short space of time is just the first evidence we have that something beneficial to Fraser sockeye has happened. The fish are clearly up to the task of rebuilding if we give them half a chance.